OpenAI have announced they’re pausing all side-initiatives to refocus on their core…
OpenAI have announced they’re pausing all side-initiatives to refocus on their core product. But I’m not convinced it’s going to make much difference....
Over the past few months they’ve been exploring horizontal plays: Checkout, Pulse (their personal assistant), Ads, even early signals of a jobs product. All in search of new revenue streams.
That alone suggested progress on core model performance had plateaued.
The jumps from GPT-3 to 4 to 5 have felt increasingly incremental for most users. And competitors have been following a similar trajectory.
However, when Google released Gemini 3, a noticeably bigger leap forward, OpenAI reportedly issued a ‘code red’, halted its side projects, and shifted the entire organisation back onto core model development (reportedly).
I’m not convinced this will make much difference. Which could signal a big problem for Open AI.
Architecture ceiling
It’s starting to look as though this generation of architecture has hit a relative ceiling. Additional training will produce gains, but likely marginal ones.
Computing power constraints
Because OpenAI still relies heavily on the same chips, they’re constrained by supply, cost and compute availability. Meanwhile, Google and China have invested heavily in their own silicon — a structural advantage that’s already reshaping the market, reflected in NVIDIA’s share price drop last month.
Enterprise market
And perhaps most importantly, OpenAI have neglected the Enterprise market, arguably where most of the long-term value sits. Anthropic now reportedly hold 32% of that market, compared with OpenAI at 25%, Google at 20% and Meta at 9%. That’s a material strategic problem.
So I’m not convinced OpenAI’s pivot back to the core model will move the needle in the way they hope. And if it doesn’t, this could signal a much bigger problem.
First published on LinkedIn.